At least that is how it is portrayed according to the British Electoral System and the provisions of it's First-Past-The-Post system of voting. Labour saw a net loss of 91 seats and the Conservatives made a net gain of 98 seats however, the 'dark horse' Liberal Democrats, contrary to the various polls carried out before the elections, experienced a loss of seats but an increase in the vote share. The conclusion saw the seats of Parliament divided as follows: Conservatives 306; Labour 258; Liberal Democrats 57; and Others 28, these results more or less matched the various exit polls conducted during the early stages of election day. In an election many tipped to be an historic landslide, not seen since Tony Blair's 1997 campaign, the British voters across the country voiced their opinion and made clear that they were not satisfied with the current government, nor were they satisfied with their choices to lead Britain in the foreseeable future. With that, parliament is hung and coalition negotiations are underway.
- What Happens Next? -
Now that Britain is experiencing it's first hung parliament since 1974, Labour and the Conservatives are in hush negotiations with the so-called 'Kingmakers', the Liberal Democrats, in a bid to form a majority coalition. Interestingly, for Labour this is a much more difficult feat to achieve. Labour's 258 seats means that even is they manage to gain the support of the Lib Dems they would still be shy of the 326 seats needed for a majority by 10 seats. They have options in all of Scotland (Scottish National Party, 6), Northern Ireland (Sinn Fein, 5, SDLP, 3, and an unlikely Alliance, 1) and in Wales (Plaid Cymru, 3). If Labour were able to establish an agreement with these parties, they would have a majority of 6 seats however, this seems unlikely. They could plead with Britain's first Green Party MP, Caroline Lucas, if all else fails.
While there are choices for Labour, Gordon Brown has stated that he accepts that since the Tory Party received the the highest number of seats, and votes, they are in a position to attempt to form a government first. As such, the Conservatives are very much in the driving seat as they are just 20 seats shy of an overall majority. The Tory party however are not in the same bargaining position as Labour. They could opt to join forces with the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland, which would afford them 8 seats, as well as trying to gain support from the Alliance party and therefore gain another seat. As Sinn Fein are notorious for not attending Westminster, their 5 seats could act as an abstention for the Tories and leave them just 4 seats shy of a de facto majority (or just 3, if they hold their yet to be decided seat in Thirsk and Malton). These figures may all be a bit daunting, especially when you take into account the likelihood of these coalition unions. However, one thing to bear in mind is that while the Tories possess a greater share of votes and seats, they don't posses as many options as Labour have when it comes to coalition formation. This is why they are so heavily reliant on the Lib Dems. To gain the support of the Lib Dems would afford the Conservatives with a 37 seat majority. The greatest obstacle that the Tories have in forming this coalition majority are the policy concessions they will most likely have to provide to the Lib Dems.
As we have all seen in the various news outlets, the Lib Dems have differing policy proposals regarding the Trident Nuclear Submarine Program, Income Tax Cuts for low earners and the greatest difference between both parties; Voting Reform.
The Liberal Democrats have fought the cause for voting reform for some time with the view that Proportional Representation is a fairer system of electing officials. This will prove to be, by far, the greatest obstacle that the Tories will face in their attempts to gain Lib Dem support. In fact, for both party leaders, it is a sticky issue. Nick Clegg will not be able to gain his own party's support if he buckles on the case for PR and Cameron will certainly have problems getting Tory support if he concedes on the issue (PR is a very difficult debate when it comes its actual fairness, but I'll deal with that in my next post).The Lib Dems, at any rate, are indeed the 'Kingmakers' in this election. They are a crucial addition for either of the two other major parties. Labour haven't a hope of retaining power without Lib Dem support and the Conservatives will find it difficult to pass legislation without the support of Lib Dems.
- This All Seems Fine But... -
As the subtitle suggests, it may seem as though the next few days will provide plenty of time for the three key parties to hash out a government strategy however, time is of the essence. The Office of the Queen has stated that she will make a statement on May 25th regarding who she will invite to form a government. This means that the parties have just over two weeks to make a decision or their efforts may be curtailed by the Queen's 'preference' as to who she feels has the best chance of forming a stable government for Britain. There are those who will argue that this is bad for the state of democracy in Britain in that it, in a way, bypasses the wishes of the public in favour of Monarchical desire. This may be the case, but then isn't the idea of a coalition contrary to public wishes as well?
Perhaps some key factors in the race to form a coalition will be the perception and aftermath of disfunctional negotiations. Think about it, if none of the parties can come together and form an aggreable coalition, what does this say for Northern Ireland. They mak think, "well, if Westminster can't sort itself out, why are we bothering with cooperative government for?" and they might have a point. Another factor is the effect that a prolonged lack of government will have on the British economy, or World economy for that matter. Already, it has been evidenced that the British economy has been adversely effected by the election verdict, surely an even longer period of 'limbo' will take its toll. The only good that can come from a lack of coalition at the present time is that it will show integrity for the party leaders towards its voters. If none of the parties will budge on their policy preferences, voters may find solace in that.
- The Voice of Britain -
One thing is for sure, the British voters have spoken. They have said that they aren't happy with the idea of any one party ruling Britain's government for the time being. Protests in London over the last 48hrs have indicated that they want actual change. People have taken to the streets of London and other parts of the UK to demonstrate their dissatisfaction at the state of the voting system, as well as showing their dismay at the controversy caused by some polling stations turning away voters after 10pm on Thursday. I would suggest that the leaders debates did something to enable this. By engaging voters, albeit artificially, in the discussions held on the BBC, Sky News, and ITV, voters seem to believe that their significance in this election has been increased. The demonstrative nature of the British public has been ever evident and party leaders will feel the demand to heed their call. To refuse to do so could have serious implications both for the parties and for the streets of the UK.
Interestingly, some members of the media appear to shun the voices of Britain. Sky News' Kay Burley berated a demonstration leader by saying that their demonstrations were pointless and that they should "go home and watch the negotiation coverage on Sky News", this is most interesting as it, in a way, proves what some have said when it came to partisanship within the BSKYB family. However, I won't take a side, I'll let you decide by encouraging you to watch the clip here.
- Famous Last Words -
To finish, let me just say that this General Election has been one of the most exciting electons, certainly from a post-election standpoint, that I have ever witnessed. All the cards are on the table, both from the public and from the political parties. The outcomes, whatever it may be, will either make or break whatever political parties are involved. If a Tory/Lib Dem coalition emerges, we may see a new era in politics which could last a generation or just a few months, either way the decisions made will be under incredible scrutiny by government's greatest judge; the public.If Labour can come out on top with the help of estranged allies, people expect 'more of the same' or 'business as usual' politics, however, if they expect to gain the support of the necessary parties, there will be major policy concession that will need to be made. Labour itself may be devolved to merely a figure head for a rainbow coalition that could bring all sorts of changes that Britain may or may not want. One thing is for sure, the final result will need to happen as soon as possible so as to preserve the UK's international standing, both politically and economically. Failure to come to a solution quickly, although not hastily, will send out signals which will make the globlal community question the strength of Britain as an international power.
For now though, if you aren't in a position to make your voice heard, I suggest watching cynically and assume that, as always, the parties will find a way to screw it up. Personally, I feel that regardless of the outcome, we will see another election by the end of the year. In the meantime, I'm going to sit in my chair and throw things at the television.
Best,
SHC
